Today’s Title: Clarity, concern, and contraction. The three C’s by Charley.
– The FOMC stated that they are not going to raise interest rates. We are in a neutral position.
– The 600+ day investigation into Trump and Russia is done.
– The bond market reacted to the FOMC news by officially inverting from the 3-month US Treasury to the 10-Year US Treasury. This is a traditional indicator that a recession is heading our way in about two years.
– Brexit is a full-fledged disaster.
– The EU is struggling with the uncertainties, and the European economies are all struggling.
– Japan is still “slow” due to their demographic issues (lots of retirees and few young people).
– Chinas growth is much slower than it has historically been. The prolonged trade war with the US is hurting growth.
– The USA is growing but at a slower pace. After great GDP growth for the last two years, we are expecting a much lower 2.1% rate next year.
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