Weekly Update:

Good morning!

It is winter here at our office in the northern suburbs of Detroit.  Schools are closed today because of the threat (by weather forecasters) of a snowstorm that should have started several hours ago.  The weather forecasters remind me that all forecasters are flawed by definition.


A forecast is a lot like how I cook.  Forecasters use a little historical data, and then they grab all of the ingredients in the economic world that may support their position (a bit of sarcasm here).  The more relevant the data, the better; and the result is, hopefully, a close-to-reality prediction.


The forecasts for economic activity have been widely varied as the political landscape, and international issues weigh on consumers’ minds.  I hope (note – not predict) that the improving stock market is an indicator of changing consumer sentiment, and a stabilizing of the economy.


On a different note, I am excited that the Detroit Lions’ season is over.  A six-win and the ten-loss season is not what gets you to the Superbowl.  And, in true Lions spirit, they won the last game of the year 31-0, which gives me hope for next year.


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